Via Travel Data Daily I stumbled upon a treasure trove of current data on frequent flyer programs published at the beginning of the year. Some airlines have disclosed newer data in investor filings over the past three months since this was published, however it’s still largely current.

How Many Members Of Frequent Flyer Programs?

In 2013 American AAdvantage had 74 million members. Once you added in US Airways Dividend Miles (and de-duped) they were up to 100 million.

Here are some membership numbers for international airline programs:

Airline	# Members
Air China	51 million
LATAM	30 million
Emirates	20 million
Qantas Airways	12 million
Virgin Australia	9 million
Avianca	8 million
SAS	5 million+
El Al	2 million

How Much Do Airlines Tell Their Accountants That Redemptions Will Cost?

Here’s how much revenue US and international airlines have deferred to cover redemptions:

Airline	Revenue Deferred to Cover Redemptions
Alaska Airlines	$1,725 million
American Airlines	$8,822 million
Delta Airlines	$6,321 million
Hawaiian Airlines	$322 million
JetBlue	$502 million
Southwest Airlines	$2,667 million
United Airlines	$4,783 million
Air China	$530 million
Air France – KLM	$983 million
Air New Zealand	$232 million
Avianca	$384 million
BA/IB/EI Avios	$1,406 million
Copa Airlines	$50 million
El Al	$104 million
Emirates	$611 million
LATAM Airlines	$1,218 million
Lufthansa	$2,608 million
Qantas Airways	$1,709 million
SAS	$213 million
Virgin Australia	$344 million

What Percentage of Miles Will Never Be Redeemed?

United and Alaska both disclose how much ‘breakage’ — or miles that will expire unredeemed — they expect.  United says 18% and Alaska says 17.4%. United tells me they do not plan to revisit that accounting assumption even though they are going to allow fewer miles to be redeemed for travel.

Will Miles Be Redeemed Immediately or Over Time?

Of miles that have already been earned with US airline frequent flyer programs and will be redeemed, what percentage will be redeemed with the next 12 months or over a greater period of time?

Airline	Liability Within 12 Months	Liability > 12 Months
American Airlines	35%	65%
Delta Airlines	44%	56%
United Airlines	46%	54%
Southwest Airlines	60%	40%
Alaska Airlines	37%	63%
JetBlue	23%	77%

How does this compare to non-US airlines that disclose their accounting breakdown between current and future liability?

Airline	Liability Within 12 Months	Liability > 12 Months
Emirates	53%	47%
Air China	20%	80%
Qantas Airways	39%	61%
Avianca1	45%	55%
Air New Zealand	48%	52%
Copa Airlines	34%	66%
El Al	67%	33%