How Much Are Miles Really Worth? Assigning a Value to Points from Each Program

What is the value of miles and points by airline, hotel and credit card program? Miles used to be thought to be worth 2 cents. I think that conventional wisdom developed out of the idea that a cross country flight cost about $500… or 25,000 miles. 20 years ago that was generally true, and award availability wasn’t really a problem either.

That was long before:

  • Airline alliances opened up huge possibilities to earn miles.
  • Mileage programs increased the cost of many awards.
  • Awards became tougher to get with flights full.

Plus the 2 cent number probably wasn’t ever a true value of miles to begin with.

Today the CEO of Delta talks about their miles being worth a penny. When American Airlines awards a mile for travel they book one cent of liability on their books under new accounting rules adopted for 2018. Those rules required the airline to accrue the expected value of transportation to be provided in exchange for their miles.

The genius of miles is that they are worth more to us than they cost an airline to issue, because frequent flyer programs are the largest purchasers of airline seats. They buy distressed inventory at a huge volume discount and sell those seats to us for points.

earn miles

Many different folks have taken a stab at how much miles are worth. For this post I’m not going to give you a single number. I’m going to share my own rough and ready number for several different programs. And I’m going to explain how I think about the value of miles — why they are different for different people, and for different circumstances of how you plan to use them. And then I’m going to compare my values to those others are assigning to the same currencies.

I haven’t published updated valuations in nearly two years so it seemed like a good time to look at the value of miles. Plenty has changed affect the value of the underlying currencies since I looked at this last.

How to Think About The Value of Miles

Here’s how to think about the value of miles and points by airline, hotel and credit card program.

It depends on how you redeem them. What value are you going to get for your points? The important thing here is not to use the retail price of a ticket you’re getting, since

  1. with premium cabin rewards you might not have been willing to spend that much cash.
  2. Frequent flyer tickets aren’t necessarily worth as much as a paid ticket. They don’t earn miles. They may not be upgradeable. And you can’t necessarily just pick whatever flight you want, you have to be flexible and worry about award availability.

It depends on when you’re going to redeem them. You don’t earn a rate of return on miles and points like you might with cash in a bank or investment account. And you need to discount to present value if you’re going to use the points later. Plus there’s substantial risk of devaluation with many points currencies.

It depends on how many you already have. The value of points at the margin is different than an overall average value. As you approach having enough points for an award, the marginal value of a few more points goes up substantially — since those extra points are what make the award possible. On the other hand, once you have more points than you’ll redeem in the near-term the value of additional points falls since you may not ever use them, or may not use them under current award charts.

The value of a mile is the amount at which you are indifferent to holding miles versus cash.

If a mile is ‘worth’ 2 cents you should be equally happy with a mile or two pennies, if you’re offered a mile at a price of 1.9 cents you would be a buyer — you’d consider yourself to be earning a 5% margin.

Put another way, when we put a charge on a credit card, that doesn’t earn any bonuses (it earns 1 mile per dollar spent), we’re effectively buying that mile for 2 cents since the opportunity cost is putting the charge on a 2% cash back card. You’re revealing a preference through your behavior that you believe the mile is worth two cents.

delta economy

Here Are the Valuations

Airlines
Air Canada Aeroplan       0.014
Air France KLM Flying Blue       0.012
Alaska Airlines Mileage Plan       0.016
American Aadvantage       0.014
ANA Mileage Club       0.015
Avianca Lifemiles       0.014
British Airways Executive Club       0.012
Cathay Pacific Asia Miles       0.013
Delta SkyMiles       0.011
Emirates Skywards       0.011
Etihad Guest       0.012
Hawaiian Airlines HawaiianMiles       0.010
JetBlue TrueBlue       0.013
Korean Air SkyPass       0.015
Lufthansa Miles & More       0.012
Singapore Airlines KrisFlyer       0.014
Southwest Airlines Rapid Rewards       0.013
United Airlines MileagePlus       0.014
Virgin Atlantic Flying Club       0.010
Hotels
Radisson Rewards       0.004
Hilton Honors       0.004
World of Hyatt       0.014
IHG Rewards Club       0.005
Marriott Bonvoy       0.007
Wyndham Rewards       0.008
Bank
American Express Membership Rewards       0.018
Chase Ultimate Rewards       0.018
Citi ThankYou Points       0.016
Capital One Miles       0.011

The most valuable points, at the top of my currency list, are transferrable points. That American Express, Chase, Citi and Capital One (Venture/Spark Miles) points. You can transfer those into a variety of programs. Earning those gives you tremendous flexibility and optionality.

How to Use These Valuations

Since valuation here is the amount at which you are indifferent to holding miles versus cash this figure is useful for:

  • Comparing when to spend miles or cash. Should I spend 50,000 miles for an award ticket or $700?
  • Comparing when to spend on airline’s miles versus another for the same award. Should I spend 25,000 United miles or 35,000 Delta miles?
  • Comparing the value of different credit card signup bonuses. Is an 80,000 point offer from Marriott better than a 75,000 point offer from Hilton? In fact, I view a 50,000 point offer from Chase Sapphire Preferred better than both.
  • Determining which hotel chain offers the better value reward when you’re considering staying at two different hotels. Should you spend 12,000 Hyatt points or 35,000 Hilton points?
  • Deciding whether to buy points when there’s a big bonus promotion.
  • Figuring out how much extra you might be willing to spend to earn points through a bonus promotion, or figure out whether a hotel promotion should influence your decision about where to stay

But since the value of miles isn’t precise I won’t actually pay 1.4 cents for an American mile. I want to accumulate American miles when they’re substantially less costly than 1.4 cents apiece. And I know I am clearly not a buyer at 2.5 cents.

In practice these are fairly blunt tools that tell me “1 cent a point for American miles is a really good deal” but that I’m not going to spend 2 cents unless there’s a very specific scenario — like a few points at the margin to top off an account for an award I’ve put on hold — where it makes sense (and in that scenario, my valuation of each point is higher since they’re helping me to save with a real redemption).

How My Valuations Compare to Others

I thought it would be interesting to compare side-by-side how One Mile at a Time and how The Points Guy value miles in comparison to my valuations.

 VFTW  OMAAT TPG
Airlines
Air Canada Aeroplan       0.014       0.014       0.015
Air France KLM Flying Blue       0.012       0.013       0.012
Alaska Airlines Mileage
Plan
      0.016       0.018       0.018
American Aadvantage        0.014       0.014       0.014
ANA Mileage Club       0.015       0.014
Avianca Lifemiles       0.014       0.014       0.017
British Airways Executive
Club
      0.012       0.013       0.015
Cathay Pacific Asia Miles       0.013       0.012       0.013
Delta SkyMiles       0.011       0.012       0.012
Emirates Skywards       0.011       0.010       0.012
Etihad Guest       0.012       0.012       0.014
Hawaiin Airlines
HawaiianMiles
      0.010       0.012
JetBlue Truelue       0.013       0.013       0.013
Korean Air SkyPass       0.015       0.015       0.017
Lufthansa Miles & More       0.012       0.012       0.014
Singapore Airlines
KrisFlyer
      0.014       0.014       0.014
Southwest Airlines Rapid
Rewards
      0.013       0.013       0.015
United Airlines
MileagePlus
      0.014       0.014       0.014
Virgin Atlantic Flying
Club
      0.010       0.012       0.015
Hotels
Radisson Rewards       0.004       0.004
Hilton Honors       0.004       0.005       0.006
World of Hyatt       0.014       0.015       0.017
IHG Rewards Club       0.005       0.005       0.005
Marriott Bonvoy       0.007       0.008       0.009
Wyndham Rewards       0.008       0.007       0.012
Bank
American Express
Membership Rewards
      0.018       0.017       0.020
Chase Ultimate Rewards       0.018       0.017       0.020
Citi ThankYou Points       0.016       0.017       0.017
Capital One Miles       0.011       0.011       0.014

Overall I think you’ll find that I value most currencies a bit lower than others do. That’s perhaps because I’m not saying just what can you buy with the miles but I’m taking a discount for time (when will you use them? they don’t earn a rate of return like cash does), a volume discount (if you have a lot the value of the marginal mile falls, pulling down the average) and a risk discount (miles are more likely to devalue than US dollars). I have a stronger preference for holding cash than miles than others do. Overall I’d say that Lucky’s valuations are closer to mine than the TPG team’s are.

How Do You Value Your Miles?

What is your value of miles and points by airline, hotel and credit card program?

Let me know if you think I’m off base on any of my valuations and make your case between me, Lucky, and the Points Guy team for whose valuations are most reasonable.

About Gary Leff

Gary Leff is one of the foremost experts in the field of miles, points, and frequent business travel - a topic he has covered since 2002. Co-founder of frequent flyer community InsideFlyer.com, emcee of the Freddie Awards, and named one of the "World's Top Travel Experts" by Conde' Nast Traveler (2010-Present) Gary has been a guest on most major news media, profiled in several top print publications, and published broadly on the topic of consumer loyalty. More About Gary »

More articles by Gary Leff »

Comments

  1. I really enjoy seeing what others value award points and miles at, but could you expound on the 1/10 of a cent VS valuation? Is that even possible on their own metal?

  2. I generally agree with most of your valuations with a few exceptions. I think you all place too high a value on SQ miles. There’re only a few specific good uses for SQ miles and award redemptions are otherwise quite expensive relative to its alternatives. CX miles are also a bit overvalued with its recent devaluation, and WN miles are a bit undervalued with the ease of redemption and absorption of most fees.

  3. Meanwhile, Nerdwallet values AAdvantage miles at 2.6 cents apiece, and removes the comments of anyone challenging that valuation.

  4. Informative article. Question: are companion passes—which come with a certain spending level on certain programs/credit cards—considered in the valuation?

  5. I think overall your valuations are very reasonable and I would agree with your general approach. It seems that TPG skews high and in some cases I would strongly disagree with his valuations. The key is as you put it, at what point am I indifferent between points and cash? Would I rather have 1000 Chase UR or or $15? When I think of it that way, it prevents me from saying “Chase points are worth $0.10 because I got an amazing deal when transferring them to United for a one way business class ticket.” I think TPG and Lucky tend to focus more on the potential value one can get from points, rather than the point of indifference between cash and points. FM has an interesting approach where the focus isn’t on the value of redemption, but rather the cost of acquisition, which can be helpful in determining which points one should choose to earn/use.

  6. I think yours is the fairest of the 3 (vs OMAAR and TPG) but I still think you overvalue most miles/points for the reasons you mentioned. Most notably the loss of flexibility. That’s HUGE for most people. Yeah, I know waiting until certain time periods or booking in advance can open availability, but sometimes people pay cash to avoid those games.

    It’s obvious TPG values points so high to sell cards. (Sign up for this card for $1300 worth of points!) To value SWA appoints at 1.4-1.5c is crazy. I know the value is fixed somewhere in there, but who in their right mind would rather have 10k SWA points over $140-150 in cash? Is that same person going to value a $100 SWA gift card the same as $100 in cash?

  7. Why isn’t location included in the valuations?

    I’m in the UK, so Alaska’s “really good partnerships”, American’s credit card offers and Delta’s operational reliability all mean nothing if I cannot access it. Thus that leaves mostly BA and VS as the only two.

    What I’d really like to see is a “Gary Moves to” series where he virtually lives in a different country and examines how his current strategy of points, alliances and cards would apply there.

  8. Thanks for taking the time to put this together. I know it must have been a lot of work. It’s always interesting to learn about how different people use miles. I’d love to see a post on how you use the points for the different airlines to show up you ended up with those valuations.

  9. We seem to be within a tenth of a cent on most currencies, which doesn’t surprise me as I think we are both a bit more conservative as programs race to the bottom. I’m surprised we are 0.0015 cents off on Delta, which is my least favorite mile by, well, a mile, but I do seem to see an average against their cash price of a bit more than you I guess. I also bump AA an extra 0.001 because of the larger range of 1st class redemptions at a lower cost than United.

  10. I think TPG really has an inflated value of points/miles. Some programs like Cathay Pacific’s Asia Miles have niche usefulness.

  11. Gary, very strong analysis. I think you need to distinguish between the value for elite vs. non elite members of a loyalty program. With many airlines, elite travelers are able to use miles and essentially have refundable tickets (up to 72 hours before departure time). In this case, the miles have substantially more value that your 110-140 bps, for 2 reasons. First, you need to look at the ticket price NOT at the non refundable fare but at the refundable fare. Second, you could look at the non refundable market price for the flight either 72 hours prior to departure (when it becomes non refundable) or when the traveler is “committed” to their trip. Whatever approach to valuation, airlines miles can have anywhere from 2x-5x the 110-140bps value.

  12. Are you really valuing Virgin Atlantic Miles at .001? I’d be curious for an explanation if so. I admit that they are not super useful, but even their isolated usefulness would seem to suggest something higher than that.

  13. For hotel points, my generalization when comparing which hotel chain to redeem at is 1 Hyatt point = 2 Marriott points = 4 Hilton points.

    I have noticed how IHG points have been losing value over the past several years. They seem to have regular devaluations.

  14. This is a partial answer as it does consider the cost of acquisition of a mile. For example, when spending on college tuition should you use your AMEX/Chase /Citicard or your Capital One card?

    American Express
    Membership Rewards 0.018 0.017 0.020
    Chase Ultimate Rewards 0.018 0.017 0.020
    Citi ThankYou Points 0.016 0.017 0.017
    Capital One Miles 0.011 0.011 0.014

    Superficially, Capital One Miles are the unambiguous lowest-valued choice. However, the Capital One Venture card gives you two of these things for each dollar you spend — making it unambiguously the most valuable card to use.

    More generally, you are copying the other scorers in using “value when miles are spent”. This would be correct if miles were always awarded at the same dollar cost. They aren’t, so we should use a new metric “value per dollar spent”. This would account for both value of miles when used, and the cost of acquiring them.

    Nobody calculates this, although there is no good reason why not.

  15. “This is a partial answer as it does consider…”
    should, of course, read
    This is a partial answer as it does NOT consider…

    Apologies for the typing error.

  16. @Mike: “Meanwhile, Nerdwallet values AAdvantage miles at 2.6 cents apiece, and removes the comments of anyone challenging that valuation.”

    Really! That totally undermines their credibility.

  17. These are mostly fair (especially relative to TPG)… with that said, I agree with @Tony… I can’t justify a Singapore Krisflyer mile being valued equally with United, Avianca, and Aeroplan anymore… the redemption rates are almost always higher and youre getting the taxes passed on (unlike United for the most part). Access to Singapore premium cabins isnt enough to justify parity for me.

    Of course, its the easiest currency to accumulate out of the four, but that shouldn’t impact per mile value.

  18. Glad you posted this article. I’ve been thinking recently about specifically TPG’s Marriott’s valuation, which I think is very high. Lucky’s caveat to his higher MR valuation is based on the temporary situation where the highest redemptions are ‘only’ 60,000 pts. More broadly though, I think TPG (which I read regularly) has a vested interest (through both partnerships with banks and core mission) in keeping miles/points valuations high.

  19. Thanks for the excellent analysis. A couple of specific observations:

    I’m a Hilton Honors member, and I can’t remember the last time the program wasn’t offering double points or 500-2,000 extra points for a stay. With double points, the value would jump from 4 cents to 8 cents, wouldn’t it? If I make the reservation using my cellphone app, I get an automatic 500 extra points.

    Also, when I’m cashing in Chase rewards, I go through their travel department to get a 50 percent increase in the value of each point.

  20. @ Leslie Lamkin – Huh? Value of points has nothing to do with how hard or easy they are to earn.

  21. At the end of the day, miles are only worth the experience you can buy. Lets say your heart is set on a trip to see the Great Wall of China. If I can make use my miles to enable me to travel during my time window, while not being ripped off (I often see 320k award an international economy ticket on Delta..that..is a ripoff), I am willing to buy the experience and I feel I am getting my money’s worth. On the other hand you may be able to calculate and encash a great trip to say Tulsa in Oklahoma at a value of 0.3 per mile reimbursement…is that a great deal? Probably not. So, it’s not very meaningful to translate miles or points into equivalent $$ all the time…The reimbursement value is in the eyes of the beholder..one thing for sure is to not collect them and treat them like money..miles and points do not earn interest.

  22. @Leslie Lamkin: “Also, when I’m cashing in Chase rewards, I go through their travel department to get a 50 percent increase in the value of each point.”

    And when you do that through your CSR, the value is then only 1.5 cents per point, which is actually lower than the value Gary assigns here.

  23. I agree with “it depends” – and on so many factors. Type of award (business class vs economy) for example. Based on a quick check, a fixed-reward RT flight from YYZ to LAX with Aeroplan in May is either 25,000 miles ($750CAD today) or 50,000 ($2000CAD), so either .03/pt or .04/pt. Numerous flight options were available, which might not be the case closer to departure, resulting in a costlier redemption price.
    Overall, the comparison chart is a great resource for sure, however another critically important factor is the “earn ratio” for base earn, as not all programs are designed using the same earn-metrics and opportunities.
    For example, in your chart, Radisson is valued at .004 vs others at .007 and .008, however they issue 20 points per $ spent as their base-earn compared to 10-pts at most of the others. Also, most
    programs offer co-brand CC’s, earn partners, tier accelerators and seasonal bonuses. Some more generous than others.
    It would be very interesting to see (if not already done) a comparison of program point “ROI” based on a “year-in-the-life” of a loyal member, who has reached a moderate status tier, has a co-brand no-fee CC, and participates in seasonal bonuses based on the brands propensity to offer them. Challenging for sure as “it depends” comes in again here, but the reality is, we are likely to use program-value comparisons to help us select our “front-of-wallet” Loyalty programs, so why not deep dive on the full experience if one is truly loyal.

  24. because of the companion pass, I value my SW points at .03, because I always travel with my wife.

  25. @Diana: “however another critically important factor is the “earn ratio” for base earn, as not all programs are designed using the same earn-metrics and opportunities.
    For example, in your chart, Radisson is valued at .004 vs others at .007 and .008, however they issue 20 points per $ spent as their base-earn compared to 10-pts at most of the others.”

    Irrelevant. You are double-counting.

  26. These are definitely closer to how I’d value miles than some other charts I’ve seen.

    TPG especially has major issues with some of the things they assume when they go to calculate how much miles are worth.

    “Hey look! My last minute one-way international business class fare would’ve been a bajillion kajillion bucks! So that totally justifies the standard award I paid for. Even factoring in the massive fuel surcharges the ticket was subjected to, I received fifty cents of value per point!!!”

  27. All of this information may be of some value to those of you that travel daily, but for my wife and I, we use our miles about once a year. I put EVERYTHING on my credit card (and always pay it at the end of the month). I have just booked two business class seats to Paris from San Francisco on British Airwaya. The number of points was 140,000 for both of us. I just checked the price online and if I wanted to purchase the seat right beside mine, it would cost almost $12,000 per person (140,000 miles = $24,000). Now ask me again how valuable the miles are……..

  28. So based on this chart I conclude you use a 2% cash back card for all non-bonus spend, correct?

    Also I would concur with Bruce in that you seriously undervalue rewards to the extent they permit free change and cancellation. A reservation made with Southwest points is worth more than others because I can change, cancel, redeposit, or perhaps most critically take advantage of a lower fare that is now offered. To some extent UA,AS,AA & DL top elites can do this as well. And the same holds true for hotels.

  29. I agree with your methodology. People really need to come up with their own numbers based on their travel. I have been using points for international business class and getting way over .02. So that has been my cut-off for use. Plus I earn the points at 1.5-5x, so my yield is a minimum .03-.10. This is obviously better than my 2.5% cash back card. But now I have a lot of points accumulated, and airlines keep raising the number of miles needed. I can only take so many international trips, and can only find so many good mileage deals, so I’m probably going to have to lower my threshold for use to .015 or so. So I’m doing more cash back. It amazes me that people buy tickets at .01 (like many domestic US & Hawaii tickets) when they could do so much better with cash back.

  30. Outside the box thought: I recently, well 3 months ago flew to Japan. First class on Japan Air (using Alaska Air miles) and Business Class on the way back using Amex point transfered to Aeroplan. Because I have 100s/thousand in multiple plans, whenever I want to go on vacation internationally, I can usually find a business class/or better option at the saver level. For domestic, I just pay for the ticket usually. Therefore, the miles are worth a lot to me, well over 2 cents. However, if I had only 100/thousand in one program, I probably could not find round trip availability. One way to Japan, then buy a revenue ticket on the way back would be very expensive. Not even sure if the miles would be worth 1 cent.

  31. Such a silly debate. But still had to jump in. Points and miles are a currency. And like all currencies are traded for goods and services. If you could exchange a handful of monkey poop for a glass of wine and the wine otherwise would have a value of $5 then at least in that instance a handful of monkey poop is worth $5. So if I drop 70,000 Alaska miles for a $20,000 Cathay 1st seat then I’m getting .28 per mile. Miles are worth what you redeem them for. If you choose poorly you get less value. Like every other purchase we make.

  32. Thank you for sharing your insights. I really haven’t been in the game long enough to figure out how I want to value miles, so I read blogs and use those values.

    When earning, I take the lowest blogger valuation.
    When redeeming, I make sure to use the highest blogger valuation.

    This has been a good rule of thumb for me until I have a better idea of how to determine my own valuations.

  33. Gary, a well written piece on the value of a point. Your analysis is very good. I was surprised to see TPG’s values in the charts as close as yours as I usually think that he is way off base which is why I stopped regularly readiing his blog. You and Lucky are usually much more aligned to my thoughts and views on travel.

    I would also stress that others can have different values in places where they can get outstanding value while others may not be interested at all. For example someone who lives in Qatar, and regularly needs to fly to the USA, may be quite interested in AA miles and as such might value them over 1.4 cents.

    As prices have dropped consistently over devaluations, I wonder if credit card companies are seeing price drops in miles. Especially as many of us like you have gone from the days where we would happily value miles at 2cents, to most approaching 1cent.

  34. I wonder if I’m the only one who has drastically reduced AA credit card spend (I cancelled both Citi Executive & Barclay’s Aviator last year). I’ve been putting most spend on a Discover with 3% cash back in the first year or a CapitolOne with 2% cash back. Just easier. And when I saw my year end statements I thought, ‘”AA sold a lot less miles to my CC banks than the year before”.

  35. Great conversation. I too value the SWA companion pass at least at $0.03. The factors in my personal life might not apply to others but one simple test is to ask what it would cost to do what you are doing without miles using a few airlines at your origin and destination. It is an interesting exercise for those who haven’t done it, particularly if you do apples to apples with cancellation fees, luggage fees, loss of earned miles by paying cash, etc. It takes zero time to toggle between miles and $ on the apps. Seems like that the REAL value of miles is for real travel plans is at the moment you want to make them. I can’t get under $0.03 with SWA when I do that. I can when I do international travel for 2 on other airlines being a cheapskate and flying coach with Google Flights. If it weren’t for 5x and 3x miles cards then international travel would be cheaper using a 2% cash back card in coach for sure. Berlin to Oakland for $300 with 2 days notice for my daughter today is an example.

  36. Miles and points to me represent a tool I can use to make what I could not have ever afforded if I had to pay cash affordable. Consequently even if I could get a $100 hotel room for only 500 points I’d probably pay cash because I can afford to do so allowing me to save those points for when I can redeem them for something I cold not afford like an $800 dollar room. That I can use points to fly in First on Lufthansa or other aspirational redemptions means that I tend to save them to make those aspirational redemptions possible. Consequently as in the case of the hotel room above if I could afford to buy the ticket I needed/wanted I’ll be unlikely to spend miles on it even if I’m getting good value for my dollar.

    I’m also more likely to use miles to cover an unplanned expense vs a planned one again because I’m looking at my budget and asking myself what I can afford vs running a strict valuation.

    In terms of spending I tend to focus on earning the currency I need. Certainly you want to maximize your return on dollars spent and consequently I direct spend that can be bonused to those cards. So If I need hotel points I would divert general spend to a Hilton Amex over a Chase card even though y nominal return is lower. That being said since miles tend to be a much harder currency to acquire than hotel points I do tend to drive most of my spending in that direction.

  37. Why has the Barclay Arrival Plus card not been evaluated.. The Bonus plus 2 points for every dollar and 5% travel redemption should be mentioned I would think

  38. I never use my Hyatt points unless I get at least 2 cents otherwise I pay cash). Usually I get way over 2 cents. Last redemption was a $600 room for Art Basil for 15,000 points plus Globalist benefits but only a slight upgrade at that time. Since then I have had a bunch of promotional free rooms from using card and qualifying nights. Marriott (I am an SPG orphan) 1 cent — same thing.
    Air miles are saved for business class overseas where they are worth way over 2 cents if you are flexible in your dates. Next flight Jax to Paris 115,000 miles round trip for a $4,000 plus trip.

Comments are closed.